Ravens vs Colts – Week 1 2026
BAL
IND
BAL
AWAY
41@23
BAL BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 1
2026 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens, 1 Colts.
Model confidence: BAL 63%Our line: BAL -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.168Net EPA / play-0.150
+0.151 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.051 (22)
-0.017 (16)Defense EPA / play+0.099 (27)
50.7% (2)Offense success %42.2% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 4.3. Actual: 18. Off by 13.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@BALW3 2023 | IND 22, BAL 19 | BAL | L |
| IND@BALW5 2021 | IND 25, BAL 31 | BAL | W |
| BAL@INDW9 2020 | BAL 24, IND 10 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs IND
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.3. The market has BAL at -3.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 41, IND 23. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -3.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 1, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 2.9 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 1 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 22, BAL 19 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.168 against IND -0.150.
