Raiders vs Rams – Week 7 2024
LV
LA
LV
AWAY
15@20
LA BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 15, Los Angeles Rams 20.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Raiders.
Model confidence: LA 67%Our line: LA -5.8
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -5.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.164Net EPA / play-0.030
-0.143 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.014 (16)
+0.021 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.044 (25)
40.5% (26)Offense success %46.8% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LA by 5.8. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Minshew2013 yd · 9 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
A.Mattison420 yd · 4 TD
A.Abdullah311 yd · 2 TD
Z.White183 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
B.Bowers112 rec · 1194 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 5.8. The market has LA at -7.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, LV 15, LA 20. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -7.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 7, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 2.3 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LV 16, LA 17 in Week 14 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Rams: LV -0.164 against LA -0.030.
