Chargers vs Cardinals – Week 7 2024
LAC
ARI
LAC
AWAY
15@17
ARI BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 15, Arizona Cardinals 17.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Chargers, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 60%Our line: ARI -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.100Net EPA / play+0.011
+0.039 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.067 (11)
-0.061 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.056 (26)
42.0% (20)Offense success %47.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ARI by 3.3. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@LACW1 2026 | ARI 26, LAC 14 | LAC | L |
| LAC@ARIW12 2022 | LAC 25, ARI 24 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ARI by 3.3. The market has ARI at +1.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, LAC 15, ARI 17. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at +1.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 7, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 1.9 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2024 season, MON 9:00 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 26, LAC 14 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.100 against ARI +0.011.
