Panthers vs Commanders – Week 7 2024
CAR
WAS
CAR
AWAY
7@40
WAS BY 33
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 7, Washington Commanders 40.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 9 Panthers, 2 Commanders.
Model confidence: WAS 72%Our line: WAS -7.9
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -7.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.213Net EPA / play+0.128
-0.053 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.139 (4)
+0.160 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (15)
41.3% (22)Offense success %48.5% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked WAS. Projected margin: 7.9. Actual: 33. Off by 25.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 23.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
WAS
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@CARW11 2021 | WAS 27, CAR 21 | CAR | L |
| CAR@WASW16 2020 | CAR 20, WAS 13 | WAS | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project WAS by 7.9. The market has WAS at -10.0.
Washington Commanders won, CAR 7, WAS 40. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at -10.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 7, the Carolina Panthers were without 9 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.3, 7.7 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 27, CAR 21 in Week 11 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: CAR -0.213 against WAS +0.128.
