Patriots vs Jaguars – Week 7 2024
NE
JAX
NE
AWAY
16@32
JAX BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 16, Jacksonville Jaguars 32.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: JAX 68%Our line: JAX -6.4
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -6.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.153Net EPA / play-0.149
-0.083 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.020 (18)
+0.070 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.129 (31)
42.4% (19)Offense success %41.5% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 16. Off by 9.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@JAXW3 2026 | NE 6, JAX 35 | JAX | W |
| JAX@NEW17 2021 | JAX 10, NE 50 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 6.4. The market has JAX at -6.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, NE 16, JAX 32. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -6.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 7, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 3.8 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2024 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, NE 6, JAX 35 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: NE -0.153 against JAX -0.149.
