NE @ JAX – Week 7 2024
NE
JAX
NE
AWAY
16@32
JAX BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 7
2024 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 68%Our line: JAX -6.4
JAX
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.4
OUR LINE
-215
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.153Net EPA / play-0.149
-0.083Offense EPA / play-0.020
+0.070Defense EPA / play+0.129
42.4%Offense success %41.5%
45.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 16. Off by 9.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +240 | -298 |
| Our fair price | +215 | -215 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
72%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
177.1 SEASON PPR
R.Stevenson
RB
175.9 SEASON PPR
D.Douglas
WR
147.7 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
D.Maye2276 yd · 15 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
R.Stevenson801 yd · 7 TD
A.Gibson538 yd · 1 TD
D.Maye421 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
H.Henry66 rec · 674 yd · 2 TD
D.Douglas66 rec · 621 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@NEW17 2021 | JAX 10, NE 50 | NE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 6.4. The market has JAX at -6.5.
The model projects 45.8 combined points. The market total is 42.0.
Week 7 of the 2024 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
New England Patriots, JAX 10, NE 50 in Week 17 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: NE -0.153 against JAX -0.149.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
