49ers vs Buccaneers – Week 10 2024
SF
TB
SF
AWAY
23@20
SF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 49ers, 1 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: SF 63%Our line: SF -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.028Net EPA / play+0.115
+0.069 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.130 (5)
+0.041 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (17)
46.1% (11)Offense success %49.5% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SF by 4.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@TBW6 2025 | SF 19, TB 30 | TB | W |
| TB@SFW11 2023 | TB 14, SF 27 | SF | W |
| TB@SFW14 2022 | TB 7, SF 35 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs TB
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.5. The market has SF at -6.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 23, TB 20. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -6.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 10, the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 5.6 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, SF 19, TB 30 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: SF +0.028 against TB +0.115.
