2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ TB – Week 10 2024
SF
TB
SF
AWAY
23@20
SF +3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SF
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: SF 63%Projected margin: -2.5
SF
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
-2.5
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SF by 2.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -298 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
SF
B.Purdy
QB
266.9SEASON PPR
G.Kittle
TE
236.6SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
210.5SEASON PPR
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@TBW6 2025 | SF 19, TB 30 | TB | W |
| TB@SFW11 2023 | TB 14, SF 27 | SF | W |
| TB@SFW14 2022 | TB 7, SF 35 | SF | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES