Jets vs Cardinals – Week 10 2024
NYJ
ARI
NYJ
AWAY
6@31
ARI BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 6, Arizona Cardinals 31.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jets, 1 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 70%Our line: ARI -6.9
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI +2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -6.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.037Net EPA / play+0.011
-0.013 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.067 (11)
+0.024 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.056 (26)
42.6% (18)Offense success %47.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 6.9. Actual: 25. Off by 18.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 27.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@NYJW5 2020 | ARI 30, NYJ 10 | ARI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 6.9. The market has ARI at +2.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, NYJ 6, ARI 31. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at +2.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 10, the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.6, 0.9 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 30, NYJ 10 in Week 5 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Arizona Cardinals: NYJ -0.037 against ARI +0.011.
