NYJ @ ARI – Week 10 2024
NYJ
ARI
NYJ
AWAY
6@31
ARI BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: ARI 70%Our line: ARI -6.9
ARI
PICK SIDE
+2.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.9
OUR LINE
-229
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.037Net EPA / play+0.011
-0.013Offense EPA / play+0.067
+0.024Defense EPA / play+0.056
42.6%Offense success %47.3%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 6.9. Actual: 25. Off by 18.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 27.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -130 | +110 |
| Our fair price | +229 | -229 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ARI +2.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.33
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
46%
DIFFERENCE
+24%
Both figures are for ARI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NYJ
A.Rodgers
QB
256.6 SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
251.9 SEASON PPR
B.Hall
RB
240.9 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
A.Rodgers3897 yd · 28 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
B.Hall876 yd · 5 TD
B.Allen334 yd · 2 TD
I.Davis174 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
G.Wilson101 rec · 1104 yd · 7 TD
D.Adams67 rec · 854 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@NYJW5 2020 | ARI 30, NYJ 10 | ARI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 6.9. The market has ARI at +2.0.
The model projects 44.6 combined points. The market total is 45.5.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 30, NYJ 10 in Week 5 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Arizona Cardinals: NYJ -0.037 against ARI +0.011.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
