2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIN @ JAX – Week 10 2024
MIN
JAX
MIN
AWAY
12@7
MIN +5
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER C
PICK: MIN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: MIN 60%Projected margin: -1.5
MIN
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
-1.5
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 1.5. Actual: 5. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -345 | Won · +$0.36 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
317.5SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
308.0SEASON PPR
A.Jones
RB
241.6SEASON PPR
JAX
B.Thomas
WR
284.0SEASON PPR
T.Lawrence
QB
145.7SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@MINW13 2020 | JAX 24, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES