Vikings vs Jaguars – Week 10 2024
MIN
JAX
MIN
AWAY
12@7
MIN BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 12, Jacksonville Jaguars 7.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: MIN 60%Our line: MIN -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -3.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.103Net EPA / play-0.149
+0.016 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.020 (18)
-0.086 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.129 (31)
45.6% (12)Offense success %41.5% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 3.5. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@MINW13 2020 | JAX 24, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs JAX
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 3.5. The market has MIN at -7.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 12, JAX 7. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -7.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 10, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.1, 1.6 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, JAX 24, MIN 27 in Week 13 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.103 against JAX -0.149.
