MIN @ JAX – Week 10 2024
MIN
JAX
MIN
AWAY
12@7
MIN BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 60%Our line: MIN -3.5
MIN
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.5
OUR LINE
-151
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.103Net EPA / play-0.149
+0.016Offense EPA / play-0.020
-0.086Defense EPA / play+0.129
45.6%Offense success %41.5%
41.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 3.5. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -345 | +280 |
| Our fair price | -151 | +151 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
75%
DIFFERENCE
-15%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
317.5 SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
308.0 SEASON PPR
A.Jones
RB
241.6 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
S.Darnold4319 yd · 35 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
A.Jones1138 yd · 5 TD
C.Akers297 yd · 1 TD
S.Darnold212 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jefferson103 rec · 1533 yd · 10 TD
J.Addison63 rec · 875 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@MINW13 2020 | JAX 24, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 3.5. The market has MIN at -7.0.
The model projects 44.1 combined points. The market total is 42.5.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, JAX 24, MIN 27 in Week 13 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.103 against JAX -0.149.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
