Cardinals vs Jets – Week 5 2020
ARI
NYJ
ARI
AWAY
30@10
ARI BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 30, New York Jets 10.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cardinals, 3 Jets.
Model confidence: ARI 55%Our line: ARI -1.8
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -1.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.031Net EPA / play-0.227
+0.038 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.143 (32)
+0.007 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.084 (25)
45.4% (18)Offense success %40.2% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 1.8. Actual: 20. Off by 18.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
378.7 SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
287.8 SEASON PPR
Kenyan Drake
RB
192.2 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray3971 yd · 26 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Kenyan Drake955 yd · 10 TD
Kyler Murray819 yd · 11 TD
Chase Edmonds448 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins115 rec · 1407 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@ARIW10 2024 | NYJ 6, ARI 31 | ARI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs NYJ
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 1.8. The market has ARI at -7.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 30, NYJ 10. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -7.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 5, the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.1, 0.4 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, NYJ 6, ARI 31 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.031 against NYJ -0.227.
