Raiders vs Chiefs – Week 5 2020
LV
KC
LV
AWAY
40@32
LV BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 40, Kansas City Chiefs 32.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 70%Our line: KC -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -11.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -7.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.085Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.045 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.184 (2)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.045 (19)
46.5% (11)Offense success %50.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but LV won. Projected margin was 7.1, the model overestimated by 15.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.0 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4103 yd · 27 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Darren Waller107 rec · 1196 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW4 2026 | KC 30, LV 27 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 70% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project KC by 7.1. The market has KC at -11.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 40, KC 32. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -11.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 11.0 points.
In Week 5, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 8.9 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 30, LV 27 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Kansas City Chiefs: LV -0.085 against KC +0.138.
