2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ KC – Week 5 2020
LV
KC
LV
AWAY
40@32
LV +8
FINAL · WEEK 5
2020 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: KC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 70%Projected margin: 8.8
KC
PICK SIDE
-11.0
SPREAD
8.8
PROJ MARGIN
-487
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but LV won. Projected margin was 8.8 -- the model overestimated by 16.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.0 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -487 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -476 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LV
Darren Waller
TE
278.6SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
272.1SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
231.3SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
374.4SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
328.9SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW16 2023 | LV 20, KC 14 | KC | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES