MIN @ DEN – Week 11 2023
MIN
DEN
MIN
AWAY
20@21
DEN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 68%Our line: MIN -6.1
MIN
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.1
OUR LINE
-208
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.023Net EPA / play-0.077
-0.041Offense EPA / play-0.058
-0.018Defense EPA / play+0.019
42.4%Offense success %42.1%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but DEN won. Projected margin was 6.1, the model overestimated by 7.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +120 | -142 |
| Our fair price | -208 | +208 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
44%
DIFFERENCE
+24%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIN
Jordan Addison
WR
221.3 SEASON PPR
T.J. Hockenson
TE
219.0 SEASON PPR
Justin Jefferson
WR
202.2 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins2331 yd · 18 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Alexander Mattison700 yd · 0 TD
Ty Chandler461 yd · 3 TD
Joshua Dobbs163 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson68 rec · 1074 yd · 5 TD
T.J. Hockenson95 rec · 960 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 6.1. The market has MIN at +2.5.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.023 against DEN -0.077.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
