Vikings vs Broncos – Week 11 2023
MIN
DEN
MIN
AWAY
20@21
DEN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 20, Denver Broncos 21.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings, 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: MIN 68%Our line: MIN -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -6.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.023Net EPA / play-0.077
-0.041 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.058 (20)
-0.018 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.019 (26)
42.4% (13)Offense success %42.1% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but DEN won. Projected margin was 6.1, the model overestimated by 7.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins2331 yd · 18 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Alexander Mattison700 yd · 0 TD
Ty Chandler461 yd · 3 TD
Joshua Dobbs163 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs DEN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 6.1. The market has MIN at +2.5.
Denver Broncos won, MIN 20, DEN 21. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at +2.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 11, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 2.2 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.023 against DEN -0.077.
