Bears vs Lions – Week 11 2023
CHI
DET
CHI
AWAY
26@31
DET BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 26, Detroit Lions 31.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bears, 2 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 78%Our line: DET -10.3
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -10.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.007Net EPA / play+0.093
-0.049 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.064 (7)
-0.042 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.029 (17)
41.8% (18)Offense success %46.1% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 10.3. Actual: 5. Off by 5.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
No noteworthy trends
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DET by 10.3. The market has DET at -8.0.
Detroit Lions won, CHI 26, DET 31. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -8.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 8.0 points.
In Week 11, the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.5, 3.5 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 19, CHI 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: CHI -0.007 against DET +0.093.
