2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ DET – Week 11 2023
CHI
DET
CHI
AWAY
26@31
DET +5
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
DET
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: DET
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: DET 78%Projected margin: 8.2
DET
PICK SIDE
-8.0
SPREAD
8.2
PROJ MARGIN
-316
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 8.2. Actual: 5. Off by 3.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.0 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -316 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -440 | Won · +$0.32 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
No noteworthy trends
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CHI
DJ Moore
WR
286.5SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
230.2SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
181.1SEASON PPR
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
330.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
289.1SEASON PPR
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES