2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ MIA – Week 11 2023
LV
MIA
LV
AWAY
13@20
MIA +7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 66%Projected margin: 3.7
MIA
PICK SIDE
-14.0
SPREAD
3.7
PROJ MARGIN
-750
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 3.7. Actual: 7. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -750 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -1100 | Won · +$0.13 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LV
Davante Adams
WR
265.4SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
218.6SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
181.1SEASON PPR
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
376.4SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
270.4SEASON PPR
Raheem Mostert
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@MIAW11 2024 | LV 19, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@LVW3 2021 | MIA 28, LV 31 | LV | W |
| MIA@LVW16 2020 | MIA 26, LV 25 | MIA | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES