Dolphins vs Raiders – Week 16 2020
MIA
LV
MIA
AWAY
26@25
MIA BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 26, Las Vegas Raiders 25.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 1 Raiders.
Model confidence: MIA 57%Our line: MIA -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -2.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.085
+0.007 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.045 (13)
-0.041 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
46.0% (13)Offense success %46.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 2.4. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3 SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2 SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Ryan Fitzpatrick2091 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin584 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed319 yd · 3 TD
Matt Breida254 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DeVante Parker63 rec · 793 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@LVW1 2026 | MIA 13, LV 27 | MIA | L |
| LV@MIAW11 2024 | LV 19, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| LV@MIAW11 2023 | LV 13, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
| MIA@LVW3 2021 | MIA 28, LV 31 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs LV
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 2.4. The market has MIA at -2.0.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 26, LV 25. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -2.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 16, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 5.2 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2020 season, SAT 8:15 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, MIA 13, LV 27 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.048 against LV -0.085.
