2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ LV – Week 16 2020
MIA
LV
MIA
AWAY
26@25
MIA +1
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER C
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 57%Projected margin: -3.2
MIA
PICK SIDE
-2.0
SPREAD
-3.2
PROJ MARGIN
-133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 3.2. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -125 | Won · +$0.75 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3SEASON PPR
LV
Darren Waller
TE
278.6SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
272.1SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@MIAW11 2024 | LV 19, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| LV@MIAW11 2023 | LV 13, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
| MIA@LVW3 2021 | MIA 28, LV 31 | LV | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES