Falcons vs Chiefs – Week 16 2020
ATL
KC
ATL
AWAY
14@17
KC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 14, Kansas City Chiefs 17.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Falcons, 2 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 73%Our line: KC -8.1
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -11.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -8.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.042Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.021 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.184 (2)
+0.063 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.045 (19)
43.2% (26)Offense success %50.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 8.1. Actual: 3. Off by 5.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4 SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5 SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
181.1 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan4581 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Todd Gurley678 yd · 9 TD
Brian Hill465 yd · 1 TD
Ito Smith268 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Calvin Ridley90 rec · 1374 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project KC by 8.1. The market has KC at -11.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, ATL 14, KC 17. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -11.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 11.0 points.
In Week 16, the Atlanta Falcons were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 7.9 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 22, ATL 17 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Kansas City Chiefs: ATL -0.042 against KC +0.138.
