2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ KC – Week 16 2020
ATL
KC
ATL
AWAY
14@17
KC +3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER S
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 73%Projected margin: 10.0
KC
PICK SIDE
-11.0
SPREAD
10.0
PROJ MARGIN
-487
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 10.0. Actual: 3. Off by 7.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -487 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -508 | Won · +$0.21 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
181.1SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
374.4SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
328.9SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@ATLW3 2024 | KC 22, ATL 17 | KC | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES