49ers vs Cardinals – Week 16 2020
SF
ARI
SF
AWAY
20@12
SF BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 20, Arizona Cardinals 12.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 6 49ers, 1 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 60%Our line: ARI -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -3.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.042Net EPA / play+0.031
+0.008 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.038 (14)
-0.034 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.007 (11)
46.0% (14)Offense success %45.4% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but SF won. Projected margin was 3.4, the model overestimated by 11.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SF
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
184.5 SEASON PPR
Jeff Wilson
RB
142.3 SEASON PPR
Kendrick Bourne
WR
129.7 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Nick Mullens2437 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Jeff Wilson600 yd · 7 TD
Raheem Mostert521 yd · 2 TD
Jerick McKinnon319 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk60 rec · 748 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SFW3 2026 | ARI 30, SF 36 | SF | W |
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 3.4. The market has ARI at -6.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 20, ARI 12. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -6.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 16, the San Francisco 49ers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 2.4 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2020 season, SAT 4:30 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, ARI 30, SF 36 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.042 against ARI +0.031.
