2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ ARI – Week 16 2020
SF
ARI
SF
AWAY
20@12
SF +8
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ARI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ARI 60%Projected margin: 3.1
ARI
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
3.1
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but SF won. Projected margin was 3.1 -- the model overestimated by 11.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -280 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SF
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
184.5SEASON PPR
Jeff Wilson
RB
142.3SEASON PPR
Kendrick Bourne
WR
129.7SEASON PPR
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
378.7SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
287.8SEASON PPR
Kenyan Drake
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
| SF@ARIW15 2023 | SF 45, ARI 29 | SF | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES