BUF @ NE – Week 16 2020
BUF
NE
BUF
AWAY
38@9
BUF BY 29
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 62%Our line: BUF -4.1
BUF
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.1
OUR LINE
-162
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.147Net EPA / play-0.076
+0.164Offense EPA / play-0.004
+0.017Defense EPA / play+0.071
50.2%Offense success %46.1%
47.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 4.1. Actual: 29. Off by 24.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BUF | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -313 | +268 |
| Our fair price | -162 | +162 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
396.1 SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
328.6 SEASON PPR
Cole Beasley
WR
207.5 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
Josh Allen4544 yd · 37 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Devin Singletary687 yd · 2 TD
Zack Moss481 yd · 4 TD
Josh Allen421 yd · 8 TD
RECEIVING
Stefon Diggs127 rec · 1535 yd · 8 TD
Cole Beasley82 rec · 967 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
| NE@BUFW17 2023 | NE 21, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.1. The market has BUF at -7.0.
The model projects 47.8 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 16 of the 2020 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 35, NE 31 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.147 against NE -0.076.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
