Titans vs Packers – Week 16 2020
TEN
GB
TEN
AWAY
14@40
GB BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 14, Green Bay Packers 40.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Titans, 4 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 54%Our line: GB -1.4
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -1.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.053Net EPA / play+0.196
+0.171 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.219 (1)
+0.117 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.022 (14)
50.1% (3)Offense success %50.7% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 1.4. Actual: 26. Off by 24.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 23.0 points.
COLD GAME
28°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
28°F
WIND
15 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3819 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@TENW3 2024 | GB 30, TEN 14 | GB | W |
| TEN@GBW11 2022 | TEN 27, GB 17 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 1.4. The market has GB at -3.0.
Green Bay Packers won, TEN 14, GB 40. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 16, the Tennessee Titans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.7, 4.8 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2020 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 30, TEN 14 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Green Bay Packers: TEN +0.053 against GB +0.196.
