Titans vs Packers – Week 11 2022
TEN
GB
TEN
AWAY
27@17
TEN BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 27, Green Bay Packers 17.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Titans, 3 Packers.
Model confidence: TEN 60%Our line: TEN -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.064Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.059 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.003 (16)
+0.004 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (27)
41.1% (22)Offense success %45.8% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 10. Off by 6.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
COLD GAME
25°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
25°F
WIND
11 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill2536 yd · 13 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
Robert Woods53 rec · 527 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@TENW3 2024 | GB 30, TEN 14 | GB | W |
| TEN@GBW16 2020 | TEN 14, GB 40 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs GB
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 3.4. The market has TEN at +3.0.
Tennessee Titans won, TEN 27, GB 17. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at +3.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 11, the Tennessee Titans were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 6.2 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 30, TEN 14 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Green Bay Packers: TEN -0.064 against GB -0.034.
