Browns vs Bills – Week 11 2022
CLE
BUF
CLE
AWAY
23@31
BUF BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 23, Buffalo Bills 31.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Browns, 3 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 70%Our line: BUF -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -7.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.001Net EPA / play+0.168
+0.012 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.116 (2)
+0.014 (22)Defense EPA / play-0.052 (7)
44.0% (19)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 7.1. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 0.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@CLEW16 2025 | BUF 23, CLE 20 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 7.1. The market has BUF at -7.5.
Buffalo Bills won, CLE 23, BUF 31. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -7.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 11, the Cleveland Browns were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 3.5 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 23, CLE 20 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: CLE -0.001 against BUF +0.168.
