2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ BAL – Week 11 2022
CAR
BAL
CAR
AWAY
3@13
BAL +10
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 71%Projected margin: 7.1
BAL
PICK SIDE
-13.0
SPREAD
7.1
PROJ MARGIN
-649
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 7.1. Actual: 10 points. The model was within 2.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -649 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -647 | Won · +$0.15 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
199.1SEASON PPR
D'Onta Foreman
RB
131.0SEASON PPR
Christian McCaffrey
RB
118.0SEASON PPR
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
236.1SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
190.5SEASON PPR
Devin Duvernay
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES