Panthers vs Ravens – Week 11 2022
CAR
BAL
CAR
AWAY
3@13
BAL BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 3, Baltimore Ravens 13.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Panthers, 1 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 71%Our line: BAL -7.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -13.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -7.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.037Net EPA / play+0.019
-0.035 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.004 (15)
+0.003 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.014 (15)
40.7% (25)Offense success %45.3% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 7.5. Actual: 10 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.5. The market has BAL at -13.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, CAR 3, BAL 13. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -13.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 13.0 points.
In Week 11, the Carolina Panthers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 3.3 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Baltimore Ravens: CAR -0.037 against BAL +0.019.
