CAR @ BAL – Week 11 2022
CAR
BAL
CAR
AWAY
3@13
BAL BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 71%Our line: BAL -7.5
BAL
PICK SIDE
-13.0
MARKET SPREAD
-7.5
OUR LINE
-245
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.037Net EPA / play+0.019
-0.035Offense EPA / play+0.004
+0.003Defense EPA / play-0.014
40.7%Offense success %45.3%
44.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 7.5. Actual: 10 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +503 | -647 |
| Our fair price | +245 | -245 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -13.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.15
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
84%
DIFFERENCE
-13%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
199.1 SEASON PPR
D'Onta Foreman
RB
131.0 SEASON PPR
Christian McCaffrey
RB
118.0 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Baker Mayfield1313 yd · 6 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
D'Onta Foreman914 yd · 5 TD
Chuba Hubbard466 yd · 2 TD
Christian McCaffrey393 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Moore63 rec · 888 yd · 7 TD
Terrace Marshall Jr.28 rec · 490 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 71% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.5. The market has BAL at -13.0.
The model projects 45.3 combined points. The market total is 42.0.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Baltimore Ravens: CAR -0.037 against BAL +0.019.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
