2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ NO – Week 11 2022
LA
NO
LA
AWAY
20@27
NO +7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER C
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NO 50%Projected margin: -0.5
NO
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-0.5
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 0.5. Actual: 7. Off by 7.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +112 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LA
Cooper Kupp
WR
201.4SEASON PPR
Tyler Higbee
TE
152.0SEASON PPR
Cam Akers
RB
141.3SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@LAW9 2025 | NO 10, LA 34 | LA | W |
| LA@NOW13 2024 | LA 21, NO 14 | NO | L |
| NO@LAW16 2023 | NO 22, LA 30 | LA | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES