LA @ NO – Week 11 2022
LA
NO
LA
AWAY
20@27
NO BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: NO 50%Our line: NO +0.0
NO
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.088Offense EPA / play-0.038
+0.017Defense EPA / play-0.056
41.0%Offense success %45.7%
45.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 7. Off by 7.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LA | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +112 | -124 |
| Our fair price | -100 | +100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
54%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LA
Cooper Kupp
WR
201.4 SEASON PPR
Tyler Higbee
TE
152.0 SEASON PPR
Cam Akers
RB
141.3 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Matthew Stafford2087 yd · 10 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Cam Akers786 yd · 7 TD
Darrell Henderson283 yd · 3 TD
Kyren Williams139 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Cooper Kupp75 rec · 812 yd · 6 TD
Tyler Higbee72 rec · 620 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@LAW9 2025 | NO 10, LA 34 | LA | W |
| LA@NOW13 2024 | LA 21, NO 14 | NO | L |
| NO@LAW16 2023 | NO 22, LA 30 | LA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 0.0. The market has NO at -2.5.
The model projects 47.5 combined points. The market total is 39.5.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, NO 10, LA 34 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: LA -0.105 against NO +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
