2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ NE – Week 11 2022
NYJ
NE
NYJ
AWAY
3@10
NE +7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NE
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NE 67%Projected margin: 5.6
NE
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
5.6
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NE by 5.6. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -182 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYJ
Garrett Wilson
WR
215.7SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
131.5SEASON PPR
Michael Carter
RB
126.0SEASON PPR
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@NYJW17 2025 | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@NEW18 2023 | NYJ 17, NE 3 | NE | L |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES