Jets vs Patriots – Week 11 2022
NYJ
NE
NYJ
AWAY
3@10
NE BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 3, New England Patriots 10.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Jets, 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 67%Our line: NE -5.9
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -5.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.036Net EPA / play+0.035
-0.087 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.054 (24)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.089 (3)
39.0% (30)Offense success %40.9% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NE by 5.9. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson1688 yd · 6 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@NEW6 2026 | NYJ 19, NE 26 | NE | W |
| NE@NYJW17 2025 | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 5.9. The market has NE at -3.5.
New England Patriots won, NYJ 3, NE 10. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -3.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 11, the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 7.9 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NYJ 19, NE 26 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: NYJ -0.036 against NE +0.035.
