Commanders vs Texans – Week 11 2022
WAS
HOU
WAS
AWAY
23@10
WAS BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 23, Houston Texans 10.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Commanders, 2 Texans.
Model confidence: WAS 68%Our line: WAS -6.4
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -6.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.003Net EPA / play-0.192
-0.078 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.189 (32)
-0.075 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.003 (17)
40.4% (28)Offense success %36.9% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked WAS. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 13. Off by 6.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
229.0 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
176.3 SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
165.9 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke1859 yd · 12 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1191 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs HOU
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 6.4. The market has WAS at -3.0.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 23, HOU 10. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at -3.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 11, the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 5.6 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Washington Commanders: WAS -0.003 against HOU -0.192.
