BAL @ CAR – Week 11 2026
BAL
CAR
BAL
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 59%Projected margin: -0.3
BAL
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-0.3
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.010Net EPA / play-0.107
+0.034Offense EPA / play-0.039
+0.024Defense EPA / play+0.067
44.6%Offense success %43.1%
44.1%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: BAL at 59%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
BAL generates 0.034 EPA/play on offense. CAR's defense allows 0.067. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
RED ZONE
BAL converts 75% in the red zone vs 55% for CAR. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Net-positive signal profile for BAL. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | BAL market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
214.9SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
L.Jackson2549 yd · 21 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Henry1595 yd · 16 TD
L.Jackson349 yd · 2 TD
K.Mitchell341 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Z.Flowers86 rec · 1211 yd · 5 TD
M.Andrews48 rec · 422 yd · 5 TD
D.Hopkins22 rec · 330 yd · 2 TD
I.Likely27 rec · 307 yd · 1 TD
VS
2,549PASSyds3,011
2,285RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@BALW11 2022 | CAR 3, BAL 13 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs CAR
Who is favored in Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers?
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 59% win probability. The margin models project BAL by 0.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Baltimore Ravens and Carolina Panthers play?
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers game?
Baltimore Ravens, 3-13 in Week 11 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Baltimore Ravens or the Carolina Panthers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.010 against CAR -0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
