ARI @ KC – Week 11 2026
ARI
KC
ARI
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
KC
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: KC 69%Projected margin: -5.0
KC
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-5.0
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.018Offense EPA / play+0.035
+0.088Defense EPA / play-0.020
43.0%Offense success %44.5%
48.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: KC at 69%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
KC generates 0.035 EPA/play on offense. ARI's defense allows 0.088. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
KC goes for it on 4th down 26% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
Net-positive signal profile for KC. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | KC market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
220.6SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
J.Brissett3366 yd · 23 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
M.Carter333 yd · 1 TD
E.Demercado312 yd · 0 TD
Z.Knight269 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride126 rec · 1239 yd · 11 TD
Mi.Wilson78 rec · 1006 yd · 7 TD
M.Harrison41 rec · 608 yd · 4 TD
E.Higgins30 rec · 301 yd · 0 TD
VS
3,366PASSyds3,587
914RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@ARIW1 2022 | KC 44, ARI 21 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs KC
Who is favored in Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs?
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability. The margin models project KC by 5.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Arizona Cardinals and Kansas City Chiefs play?
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs game?
Kansas City Chiefs, 44-21 in Week 1 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Arizona Cardinals or the Kansas City Chiefs?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Kansas City Chiefs: ARI -0.107 against KC +0.055.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
