Cardinals vs Chiefs – Week 11 2026
ARI
KC
ARI
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Chiefs over the Cardinals at 77% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: KC 77%Our line: KC -10.1
80% range around our line: ARI by 7 to KC by 27. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the KC game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
KC —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -10.1
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
77%
KC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
84%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
| SPORTSBOOK | ARI | KC | KC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +440 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 11 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
Early season: 4 games played for at least one team. These numbers and ranks will move fast.
-0.142Net EPA / play+0.222
-0.018 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.172 (4)
+0.124 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.050 (8)
45.9% (12)Offense success %48.6%
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: KC at 77%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
KC generates 0.172 EPA/play on offense. ARI's defense allows 0.124. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
KC goes for it on 4th down 26% of the time, among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
KC scores 2.3 points per drive vs 1.5 for ARI. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 10.1-point margin.
Multiple signals align in KC's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 77% win probability. The margin models project KC by 10.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Kansas City Chiefs at 77% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 44, ARI 21 in Week 1 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Kansas City Chiefs: ARI -0.142 against KC +0.222.
