MIA @ BUF – Week 11 2026
MIA
BUF
MIA
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
BUF
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: BUF 77%Projected margin: -7.9
BUF
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-7.9
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.152
-0.017Offense EPA / play+0.136
+0.088Defense EPA / play-0.016
41.9%Offense success %48.5%
48.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: BUF at 77%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
BUF generates 0.136 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.088. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
BUF goes for it on 4th down 32% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
H2H EDGE
BUF has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against MIA.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.5 points per drive vs 1.5 for MIA. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 7.9-point margin.
Multiple signals align in BUF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | BUF market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
T.Tagovailoa2660 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D.Achane1350 yd · 8 TD
J.Wright288 yd · 2 TD
O.Gordon199 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
J.Waddle64 rec · 910 yd · 6 TD
D.Achane67 rec · 488 yd · 4 TD
G.Dulcich26 rec · 335 yd · 1 TD
M.Washington46 rec · 317 yd · 3 TD
VS
2,660PASSyds3,668
1,837RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW17 2026 | — | BUF | — |
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs BUF
Who is favored in Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills?
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 77% win probability. The margin models project BUF by 7.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills play?
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills game?
Miami Dolphins, 13-30 in Week 10 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Miami Dolphins or the Buffalo Bills?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: MIA -0.105 against BUF +0.152.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
