Dolphins vs Bills – Week 11 2026
MIA
BUF
MIA
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Bills over the Dolphins at 81% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: BUF 81%Our line: BUF -11.9
80% range around our line: MIA by 5 to BUF by 29. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the BUF game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -11.9
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
81%
BUF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
84%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
| SPORTSBOOK | MIA | BUF | BUF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 11 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.224Net EPA / play+0.077
-0.116 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.210 (1)
+0.108 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.134 (30)
37.6% (30)Offense success %49.1% (3)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: BUF at 81%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
BUF generates 0.210 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.108. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
BUF has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against MIA.
RED ZONE
BUF converts 71% in the red zone vs 50% for MIA. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.7 points per drive vs 1.0 for MIA. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 11.9-point margin.
Multiple signals align in BUF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
M.Willis849 yd · 2 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 81% win probability. The margin models project BUF by 11.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Buffalo Bills at 81% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, BUF 13, MIA 30 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Buffalo Bills: MIA -0.224 against BUF +0.077.
