Bills vs Dolphins – Week 18 2023
BUF
MIA
BUF
AWAY
21@14
BUF BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 21, Miami Dolphins 14.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins.
Model confidence: BUF 60%Our line: BUF -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -3.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.182Net EPA / play+0.136
+0.108 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.097 (4)
-0.074 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.039 (15)
49.0% (2)Offense success %47.2% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 3.6. Actual: 7. Off by 3.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW4 2023 | MIA 20, BUF 48 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs MIA
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 3.6. The market has BUF at -2.5.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 21, MIA 14. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -2.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 18, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 1.9 below the market.
Week 18 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Miami Dolphins, BUF 13, MIA 30 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.182 against MIA +0.136.
