SEA @ ARI – Week 18 2023
SEA
ARI
SEA
AWAY
21@20
SEA BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: ARI 50%Our line: ARI +0.0
ARI
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.035Net EPA / play-0.157
+0.016Offense EPA / play-0.071
+0.051Defense EPA / play+0.085
43.9%Offense success %40.5%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI C-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but SEA won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 1.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -155 | +130 |
| Our fair price | -100 | +100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ARI +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
42%
DIFFERENCE
+8%
Both figures are for ARI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SEA
Geno Smith
QB
227.3 SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
202.4 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Geno Smith3624 yd · 20 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Kenneth Walker III905 yd · 8 TD
Zach Charbonnet462 yd · 1 TD
Geno Smith155 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf66 rec · 1114 yd · 8 TD
Tyler Lockett79 rec · 894 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SEAW10 2025 | ARI 22, SEA 44 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW4 2025 | SEA 23, ARI 20 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW14 2024 | SEA 30, ARI 18 | ARI | L |
| ARI@SEAW12 2024 | ARI 6, SEA 16 | ARI | L |
| ARI@SEAW7 2023 | ARI 10, SEA 20 | SEA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SEA by 0.0. The market has ARI at +2.5.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 48.0.
Week 18 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, ARI 22, SEA 44 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA -0.035 against ARI -0.157.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
