Seahawks vs Cardinals – Week 18 2023
SEA
ARI
SEA
AWAY
21@20
SEA BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 21, Arizona Cardinals 20.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Seahawks, 3 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 50%Our line: ARI +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.035Net EPA / play-0.157
+0.016 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.071 (22)
+0.051 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.085 (32)
43.9% (11)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI C-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but SEA won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 1.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@ARIW2 2026 | SEA 31, ARI 7 | SEA | W |
| ARI@SEAW10 2025 | ARI 22, SEA 44 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW4 2025 | SEA 23, ARI 20 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW14 2024 | SEA 30, ARI 18 | ARI | L |
| ARI@SEAW12 2024 | ARI 6, SEA 16 | ARI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SEA by 0.0. The market has ARI at +2.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 21, ARI 20. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at +2.5, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 18, the Seattle Seahawks were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 2.5 below the market.
Week 18 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 31, ARI 7 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA -0.035 against ARI -0.157.
