Broncos vs Raiders – Week 18 2023
DEN
LV
DEN
AWAY
14@27
LV BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 14, Las Vegas Raiders 27.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 3 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 60%Our line: LV -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.077Net EPA / play-0.037
-0.058 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.097 (25)
+0.019 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
42.1% (14)Offense success %41.2% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 13. Off by 9.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9 SEASON PPR
190.2 SEASON PPR
179.2 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3070 yd · 26 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW1 2023 | LV 17, DEN 16 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 3.4. The market has LV at -3.5.
Las Vegas Raiders won, DEN 14, LV 27. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -3.5, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 18, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 7.8 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, LV 17 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Las Vegas Raiders: DEN -0.077 against LV -0.037.
