PHI @ NYG – Week 18 2023
PHI
NYG
PHI
AWAY
10@27
NYG BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 71%Our line: PHI -7.3
PHI
PICK SIDE
-4.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.3
OUR LINE
-241
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.005Net EPA / play-0.155
+0.054Offense EPA / play-0.174
+0.049Defense EPA / play-0.019
45.9%Offense success %37.9%
44.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but NYG won. Projected margin was 7.3, the model overestimated by 24.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -238 | +190 |
| Our fair price | -241 | +241 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
67%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
356.8 SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
289.6 SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
227.6 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Jalen Hurts3858 yd · 23 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D'Andre Swift1049 yd · 5 TD
Jalen Hurts605 yd · 15 TD
Kenneth Gainwell364 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.J. Brown106 rec · 1456 yd · 7 TD
DeVonta Smith81 rec · 1066 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@PHIW8 2025 | NYG 20, PHI 38 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW6 2025 | PHI 17, NYG 34 | PHI | L |
| NYG@PHIW18 2024 | NYG 13, PHI 20 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW7 2024 | PHI 28, NYG 3 | PHI | W |
| NYG@PHIW16 2023 | NYG 25, PHI 33 | PHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 7.3. The market has PHI at -4.5.
The model projects 45.3 combined points. The market total is 43.0.
Week 18 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, NYG 20, PHI 38 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.005 against NYG -0.155.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
