2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ NYG – Week 18 2023
PHI
NYG
PHI
AWAY
10@27
NYG +17
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
NYG
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PHI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PHI 71%Projected margin: -5.6
PHI
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
-5.6
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but NYG won. Projected margin was 5.6 -- the model overestimated by 22.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -238 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
356.8SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
289.6SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
227.6SEASON PPR
NYG
Saquon Barkley
RB
223.2SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0SEASON PPR
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@PHIW8 2025 | NYG 20, PHI 38 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW6 2025 | PHI 17, NYG 34 | PHI | L |
| NYG@PHIW18 2024 | NYG 13, PHI 20 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW7 2024 | PHI 28, NYG 3 | PHI | W |
| NYG@PHIW16 2023 | NYG 25, PHI 33 | PHI | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES