Eagles vs Giants – Week 18 2023
PHI
NYG
PHI
AWAY
10@27
NYG BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 10, New York Giants 27.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Eagles, 2 Giants.
Model confidence: PHI 71%Our line: PHI -7.3
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -7.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.005Net EPA / play-0.155
+0.054 (8)Offense EPA / play-0.174 (29)
+0.049 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.019 (19)
45.9% (7)Offense success %37.9% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but NYG won. Projected margin was 7.3, the model overestimated by 24.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@PHIW8 2025 | NYG 20, PHI 38 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW6 2025 | PHI 17, NYG 34 | PHI | L |
| NYG@PHIW18 2024 | NYG 13, PHI 20 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW7 2024 | PHI 28, NYG 3 | PHI | W |
| NYG@PHIW16 2023 | NYG 25, PHI 33 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs NYG
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 7.3. The market has PHI at -4.5.
New York Giants won, PHI 10, NYG 27. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -4.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 18, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 2.3 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, NYG 20, PHI 38 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.005 against NYG -0.155.
