Vikings vs Saints – Week 16 2020
MIN
NO
MIN
AWAY
33@52
NO BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 33, New Orleans Saints 52.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Vikings, 3 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 61%Our line: NO -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -3.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.003Net EPA / play+0.177
+0.095 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.093 (9)
+0.098 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.084 (4)
49.2% (5)Offense success %47.6% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 3.8. Actual: 19. Off by 15.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@NOW5 2026 | MIN 23, NO 13 | MIN | W |
| NO@MINW10 2023 | NO 19, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@NOW4 2022 | MIN 28, NO 25 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 3.8. The market has NO at -6.5.
New Orleans Saints won, MIN 33, NO 52. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -6.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 16, the Minnesota Vikings were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 1.5 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2020 season, FRI 4:30 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 23, NO 13 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: MIN -0.003 against NO +0.177.
