MIN @ NO – Week 16 2020
MIN
NO
MIN
AWAY
33@52
NO BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: NO 61%Our line: NO -3.8
NO
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.8
OUR LINE
-157
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.003Net EPA / play+0.177
+0.095Offense EPA / play+0.093
+0.098Defense EPA / play-0.084
49.2%Offense success %47.6%
50.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 3.8. Actual: 19. Off by 15.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +260 | -302 |
| Our fair price | +157 | -157 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
73%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIN
Dalvin Cook
RB
337.8 SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
306.2 SEASON PPR
Justin Jefferson
WR
274.2 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins4265 yd · 35 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Dalvin Cook1557 yd · 16 TD
Alexander Mattison434 yd · 2 TD
Kirk Cousins156 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson88 rec · 1400 yd · 7 TD
Adam Thielen74 rec · 925 yd · 14 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@MINW10 2023 | NO 19, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@NOW4 2022 | MIN 28, NO 25 | MIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 3.8. The market has NO at -6.5.
The model projects 47.5 combined points. The market total is 49.0.
Week 16 of the 2020 season, FRI 4:30 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, NO 19, MIN 27 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: MIN -0.003 against NO +0.177.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
