Vikings vs Saints – Week 4 2022
MIN
NO
MIN
AWAY
28@25
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 28, New Orleans Saints 25.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Vikings, 4 Saints.
Model confidence: MIN 61%Our line: MIN -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -3.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.023Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.011 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (21)
+0.012 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.056 (6)
44.9% (13)Offense success %45.7% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 3.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@NOW5 2026 | MIN 23, NO 13 | MIN | W |
| NO@MINW10 2023 | NO 19, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@NOW16 2020 | MIN 33, NO 52 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs NO
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 3.6. The market has MIN at -4.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 28, NO 25. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -4.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 4, the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 5.2 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 23, NO 13 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: MIN -0.023 against NO +0.018.
