2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIN @ NO – Week 4 2022
MIN
NO
MIN
AWAY
28@25
MIN +3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: MIN 61%Projected margin: -1.6
MIN
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
-1.6
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 1.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -199 | Won · +$0.56 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
368.7SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
291.6SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
237.8SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@MINW10 2023 | NO 19, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@NOW16 2020 | MIN 33, NO 52 | NO | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES