MIN @ NO – Week 4 2022
MIN
NO
MIN
AWAY
28@25
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 61%Our line: MIN -3.6
MIN
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.6
OUR LINE
-154
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.023Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.011Offense EPA / play-0.038
+0.012Defense EPA / play-0.056
44.9%Offense success %45.7%
45.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 3.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -199 | +177 |
| Our fair price | -154 | +154 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
65%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
368.7 SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
291.6 SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
237.8 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins4547 yd · 29 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Dalvin Cook1173 yd · 8 TD
Alexander Mattison283 yd · 5 TD
Kirk Cousins97 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson128 rec · 1809 yd · 8 TD
Adam Thielen70 rec · 716 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@MINW10 2023 | NO 19, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@NOW16 2020 | MIN 33, NO 52 | NO | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 3.6. The market has MIN at -4.0.
The model projects 47.2 combined points. The market total is 42.0.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Minnesota Vikings, NO 19, MIN 27 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: MIN -0.023 against NO +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
