KC @ TB – Week 4 2022

TB C-tier pick misses. KC takes it.

Model picked TB but KC won. Projected margin was 0.3 -- the model overestimated by 10.3 points.

Missed the spread by 11.0 points.

The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.

Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.