KC @ TB – Week 4 2022
KC
TB
KC
AWAY
41@31
KC BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
Model confidence: TB 56%Our line: TB -2.0
TB
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.0
OUR LINE
-126
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.204Net EPA / play-0.013
+0.186Offense EPA / play-0.038
-0.019Defense EPA / play-0.025
50.4%Offense success %43.8%
42.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick misses. KC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but KC won. Projected margin was 2.0, the model overestimated by 12.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | KC | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +113 | -125 |
| Our fair price | +126 | -126 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
56%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
54%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
417.4 SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
316.3 SEASON PPR
Jerick McKinnon
RB
196.3 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Kansas City ChiefsPASSING
Patrick Mahomes5250 yd · 41 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Isiah Pacheco830 yd · 5 TD
Patrick Mahomes358 yd · 4 TD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire302 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Travis Kelce110 rec · 1338 yd · 12 TD
JuJu Smith-Schuster
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@KCW9 2024 | TB 24, KC 30 | KC | W |
| KC@TBW12 2020 | KC 27, TB 24 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs TB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 2.0. The market has TB at -1.0.
The model projects 48.1 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, TB 24, KC 30 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.204 against TB -0.013.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
