2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ PIT – Week 4 2022
NYJ
PIT
NYJ
AWAY
24@20
NYJ +4
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PIT 69%Projected margin: 5.7
PIT
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
5.7
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but NYJ won. Projected margin was 5.7 -- the model overestimated by 9.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -161 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
PIT
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYJ
Garrett Wilson
WR
215.7SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
131.5SEASON PPR
Michael Carter
RB
126.0SEASON PPR
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
225.5SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
180.7SEASON PPR
George Pickens
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@NYJW1 2025 | PIT 34, NYJ 32 | PIT | W |
| NYJ@PITW7 2024 | NYJ 15, PIT 37 | PIT | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES