Jets vs Steelers – Week 4 2022
NYJ
PIT
NYJ
AWAY
24@20
NYJ BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jets, 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 69%Our line: PIT -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -6.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.036Net EPA / play-0.012
-0.087 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (12)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (26)
39.0% (30)Offense success %45.1% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but NYJ won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 10.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
PIT
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson1688 yd · 6 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@NYJW1 2025 | PIT 34, NYJ 32 | PIT | W |
| NYJ@PITW7 2024 | NYJ 15, PIT 37 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 6.8. The market has PIT at -3.0.
New York Jets won, NYJ 24, PIT 20. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 4, the New York Jets were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 5.9 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 34, NYJ 32 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: NYJ -0.036 against PIT -0.012.
