NYJ @ PIT – Week 4 2022
NYJ
PIT
NYJ
AWAY
24@20
NYJ BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 69%Our line: PIT -6.8
PIT
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.8
OUR LINE
-226
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.036Net EPA / play-0.012
-0.087Offense EPA / play+0.012
-0.051Defense EPA / play+0.024
39.0%Offense success %45.1%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but NYJ won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 10.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +145 | -161 |
| Our fair price | +226 | -226 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
PIT
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYJ
Garrett Wilson
WR
215.7 SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
131.5 SEASON PPR
Michael Carter
RB
126.0 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson1688 yd · 6 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Breece Hall463 yd · 4 TD
Michael Carter402 yd · 3 TD
Bam Knight300 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Garrett Wilson83 rec · 1103 yd · 4 TD
Tyler Conklin58 rec · 552 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@NYJW1 2025 | PIT 34, NYJ 32 | PIT | W |
| NYJ@PITW7 2024 | NYJ 15, PIT 37 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 6.8. The market has PIT at -3.0.
The model projects 46.9 combined points. The market total is 41.0.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 34, NYJ 32 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: NYJ -0.036 against PIT -0.012.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
