Browns vs Falcons – Week 4 2022
CLE
ATL
CLE
AWAY
20@23
ATL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 20, Atlanta Falcons 23.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 64%Our line: CLE -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -4.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.001Net EPA / play-0.075
+0.012 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (14)
+0.014 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.080 (31)
44.0% (19)Offense success %45.5% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but ATL won. Projected margin was 4.8, the model overestimated by 7.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs ATL
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 4.8. The market has CLE at -1.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, CLE 20, ATL 23. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -1.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 4, the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 2.2 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE -0.001 against ATL -0.075.
