JAX @ PHI – Week 4 2022
JAX
PHI
JAX
AWAY
21@29
PHI BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 67%Our line: PHI -5.9
PHI
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.9
OUR LINE
-202
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.067Net EPA / play+0.172
+0.046Offense EPA / play+0.107
-0.021Defense EPA / play-0.064
46.3%Offense success %48.3%
44.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 5.9. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +223 | -256 |
| Our fair price | +202 | -202 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
No noteworthy trends
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
295.6 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9 SEASON PPR
Travis Etienne
RB
205.1 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
Trevor Lawrence4113 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Travis Etienne1125 yd · 5 TD
James Robinson340 yd · 3 TD
Trevor Lawrence291 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Christian Kirk84 rec · 1108 yd · 8 TD
Zay Jones82 rec · 823 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@PHIW9 2024 | JAX 23, PHI 28 | PHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 5.9. The market has PHI at -6.5.
The model projects 47.2 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, JAX 23, PHI 28 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Philadelphia Eagles: JAX +0.067 against PHI +0.172.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
