Jaguars vs Eagles – Week 4 2022
JAX
PHI
JAX
AWAY
21@29
PHI BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 21, Philadelphia Eagles 29.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 67%Our line: PHI -5.9
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -5.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.067Net EPA / play+0.172
+0.046 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.107 (3)
-0.021 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.064 (5)
46.3% (5)Offense success %48.3% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 5.9. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
No noteworthy trends
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
295.6 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9 SEASON PPR
205.1 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@JAXW5 2026 | PHI 17, JAX 19 | JAX | W |
| JAX@PHIW9 2024 | JAX 23, PHI 28 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 5.9. The market has PHI at -6.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, JAX 21, PHI 29. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -6.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 4, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 3.2 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, PHI 17, JAX 19 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Philadelphia Eagles: JAX +0.067 against PHI +0.172.
