2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ PHI – Week 4 2022
JAX
PHI
JAX
AWAY
21@29
PHI +8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
PHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PHI
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: PHI 67%Projected margin: 4.6
PHI
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
4.6
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 4.6. Actual: 8. Off by 3.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -256 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
No noteworthy trends
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9SEASON PPR
Travis Etienne
RB
205.1SEASON PPR
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
378.0SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
299.6SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@PHIW9 2024 | JAX 23, PHI 28 | PHI | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES