MIA @ CIN – Week 4 2022
MIA
CIN
MIA
AWAY
15@27
CIN BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 64%Our line: MIA -5.0
MIA
PICK SIDE
+4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.0
OUR LINE
-180
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.039Net EPA / play+0.125
+0.047Offense EPA / play+0.077
+0.008Defense EPA / play-0.048
44.5%Offense success %47.3%
42.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but CIN won. Projected margin was 5.0, the model overestimated by 17.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +169 | -190 |
| Our fair price | -180 | +180 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA +4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
36%
DIFFERENCE
+28%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2 SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2 SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
230.9 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa3548 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert891 yd · 3 TD
Jeff Wilson392 yd · 3 TD
Chase Edmonds120 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1710 yd · 7 TD
Jaylen Waddle75 rec · 1356 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@MIAW16 2025 | CIN 45, MIA 21 | MIA | L |
| CIN@MIAW13 2020 | CIN 7, MIA 19 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 5.0. The market has MIA at +4.0.
The model projects 48.0 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 45, MIA 21 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: MIA +0.039 against CIN +0.125.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
