Dolphins vs Bengals – Week 4 2022
MIA
CIN
MIA
AWAY
15@27
CIN BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 15, Cincinnati Bengals 27.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 2 Bengals.
Model confidence: MIA 64%Our line: MIA -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA +4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -5.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.039Net EPA / play+0.125
+0.047 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.077 (5)
+0.008 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.048 (10)
44.5% (16)Offense success %47.3% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but CIN won. Projected margin was 5.0, the model overestimated by 17.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa3548 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert891 yd · 3 TD
Jeff Wilson392 yd · 3 TD
Chase Edmonds120 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1710 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@MIAW5 2026 | CIN 31, MIA 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@MIAW16 2025 | CIN 45, MIA 21 | MIA | L |
| CIN@MIAW13 2020 | CIN 7, MIA 19 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs CIN
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 5.0. The market has MIA at +4.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, MIA 15, CIN 27. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Miami Dolphins at +4.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 4, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 0.5 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 31, MIA 24 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: MIA +0.039 against CIN +0.125.
