2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ CIN – Week 4 2022
MIA
CIN
MIA
AWAY
15@27
CIN +12
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 64%Projected margin: -3.3
MIA
PICK SIDE
+4.0
SPREAD
-3.3
PROJ MARGIN
+178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but CIN won. Projected margin was 3.3 -- the model overestimated by 15.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +4.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +169 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
230.9SEASON PPR
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
350.7SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
242.4SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@MIAW16 2025 | CIN 45, MIA 21 | MIA | L |
| CIN@MIAW13 2020 | CIN 7, MIA 19 | MIA | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES