Rams vs 49ers – Week 4 2022
LA
SF
LA
AWAY
9@24
SF BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 9, San Francisco 49ers 24.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Rams, 6 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 50%Our line: SF +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.211
-0.088 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.085 (4)
+0.017 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.126 (1)
41.0% (23)Offense success %46.2% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 15. Off by 15.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@LAW1 2026 | SF 27, LA 7 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 0.0. The market has SF at -1.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, LA 9, SF 24. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -1.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 4, the Los Angeles Rams were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.7, 6.7 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, MON 8:15 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 27, LA 7 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, San Francisco 49ers: LA -0.105 against SF +0.211.
