Giants vs Commanders – Week 11 2023
NYG
WAS
NYG
AWAY
31@19
NYG BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 31, Washington Commanders 19.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Giants, 3 Commanders.
Model confidence: WAS 70%Our line: WAS -7.2
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -7.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.155Net EPA / play-0.190
-0.174 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.106 (27)
-0.019 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.085 (31)
37.9% (30)Offense success %41.0% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but NYG won. Projected margin was 7.2, the model overestimated by 19.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
223.2 SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0 SEASON PPR
133.2 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@WASW5 2026 | NYG 27, WAS 27 | NYG | P |
| WAS@NYGW15 2025 | WAS 29, NYG 21 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW1 2025 | NYG 6, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
| WAS@NYGW9 2024 | WAS 27, NYG 22 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW2 2024 | NYG 18, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 7.2. The market has WAS at -7.5.
New York Giants won, NYG 31, WAS 19. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Washington Commanders at -7.5, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 11, the New York Giants were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 6.5 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
They tied, NYG 27, WAS 27 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New York Giants: NYG -0.155 against WAS -0.190.
