NYG @ WAS – Week 11 2023
NYG
WAS
NYG
AWAY
31@19
NYG BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: WAS 70%Our line: WAS -7.2
WAS
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.2
OUR LINE
-235
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.155Net EPA / play-0.190
-0.174Offense EPA / play-0.106
-0.019Defense EPA / play+0.085
37.9%Offense success %41.0%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but NYG won. Projected margin was 7.2, the model overestimated by 19.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +310 | -395 |
| Our fair price | +235 | -235 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD WAS -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for WAS. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
Saquon Barkley
RB
223.2 SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0 SEASON PPR
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR
133.2 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
Tyrod Taylor1341 yd · 5 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
Saquon Barkley962 yd · 6 TD
Daniel Jones206 yd · 1 TD
Tyrod Taylor197 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Darius Slayton50 rec · 770 yd · 4 TD
Darren Waller52 rec · 552 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@NYGW15 2025 | WAS 29, NYG 21 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW1 2025 | NYG 6, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
| WAS@NYGW9 2024 | WAS 27, NYG 22 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW2 2024 | NYG 18, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
| WAS@NYGW7 2023 | WAS 7, NYG 14 | WAS | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 7.2. The market has WAS at -7.5.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 39.0.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 29, NYG 21 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New York Giants: NYG -0.155 against WAS -0.190.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
