Chargers vs Packers – Week 11 2023
LAC
GB
LAC
AWAY
20@23
GB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 20, Green Bay Packers 23.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chargers, 1 Packers.
Model confidence: LAC 57%Our line: LAC -2.5
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -2.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.088Net EPA / play+0.056
-0.076 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.064 (6)
+0.012 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.008 (24)
41.0% (22)Offense success %44.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but GB won. Projected margin was 2.5, the model overestimated by 5.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 16 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs GB
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 2.5. The market has LAC at -3.0.
Green Bay Packers won, LAC 20, GB 23. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 11, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 1.7 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Green Bay Packers: LAC -0.088 against GB +0.056.
