LAC @ GB – Week 11 2023
LAC
GB
LAC
AWAY
20@23
GB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2023 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: LAC 57%Our line: LAC -2.5
LAC
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.5
OUR LINE
-135
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.088Net EPA / play+0.056
-0.076Offense EPA / play+0.064
+0.012Defense EPA / play+0.008
41.0%Offense success %44.6%
44.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but GB won. Projected margin was 2.5, the model overestimated by 5.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 16 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LAC | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -162 | +136 |
| Our fair price | -135 | +135 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LAC -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
57%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for LAC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LAC
Keenan Allen
WR
278.9 SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
234.2 SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
185.4 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert3134 yd · 20 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler628 yd · 5 TD
Joshua Kelley405 yd · 2 TD
Justin Herbert228 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Keenan Allen108 rec · 1243 yd · 7 TD
Josh Palmer38 rec · 581 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 2.5. The market has LAC at -3.0.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 11 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Green Bay Packers: LAC -0.088 against GB +0.056.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
