Texans vs Cardinals – Week 7 2021
HOU
ARI
HOU
AWAY
5@31
ARI BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 5, Arizona Cardinals 31.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Texans, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 75%Our line: ARI -9.1
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -20.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -9.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
75%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.212Net EPA / play+0.122
-0.138 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.073 (9)
+0.074 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.049 (6)
37.4% (32)Offense success %46.8% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 9.1. Actual: 26. Off by 16.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills2664 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Rex Burkhead427 yd · 3 TD
Mark Ingram294 yd · 1 TD
David Johnson228 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks90 rec · 1037 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@HOUW15 2025 | ARI 20, HOU 40 | HOU | W |
| ARI@HOUW11 2023 | ARI 16, HOU 21 | HOU | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 75% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project ARI by 9.1. The market has ARI at -20.5.
Arizona Cardinals won, HOU 5, ARI 31. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -20.5, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 20.5 points.
In Week 7, the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.3, 1.3 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Houston Texans, ARI 20, HOU 40 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Arizona Cardinals: HOU -0.212 against ARI +0.122.
