HOU @ ARI – Week 7 2021
HOU
ARI
HOU
AWAY
5@31
ARI BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: ARI 75%Our line: ARI -9.1
ARI
PICK SIDE
-20.5
MARKET SPREAD
-9.1
OUR LINE
-300
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.212Net EPA / play+0.122
-0.138Offense EPA / play+0.073
+0.074Defense EPA / play-0.049
37.4%Offense success %46.8%
48.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 9.1. Actual: 26. Off by 16.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +1119 | -1766 |
| Our fair price | +300 | -300 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ARI -20.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.05
OUR NUMBER
75%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
92%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
Both figures are for ARI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
HOU
Brandin Cooks
WR
231.8 SEASON PPR
Davis Mills
QB
157.0 SEASON PPR
Rex Burkhead
RB
104.3 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills2664 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Rex Burkhead427 yd · 3 TD
Mark Ingram294 yd · 1 TD
David Johnson228 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks90 rec · 1037 yd · 6 TD
Nico Collins33 rec · 446 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@HOUW15 2025 | ARI 20, HOU 40 | HOU | W |
| ARI@HOUW11 2023 | ARI 16, HOU 21 | HOU | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 75% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project ARI by 9.1. The market has ARI at -20.5.
The model projects 48.3 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Houston Texans, ARI 20, HOU 40 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Arizona Cardinals: HOU -0.212 against ARI +0.122.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
