2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ ARI – Week 7 2021
HOU
ARI
HOU
AWAY
5@31
ARI +26
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER S
PICK: ARI
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: ARI 75%Projected margin: 10.7
ARI
PICK SIDE
-20.5
SPREAD
10.7
PROJ MARGIN
-1911
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 10.7. Actual: 26. Off by 15.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -20.5 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -1911 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -1766 | Won · +$0.05 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
HOU
Brandin Cooks
WR
231.8SEASON PPR
Davis Mills
QB
157.0SEASON PPR
Rex Burkhead
RB
104.3SEASON PPR
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@HOUW15 2025 | ARI 20, HOU 40 | HOU | W |
| ARI@HOUW11 2023 | ARI 16, HOU 21 | HOU | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES