Bengals vs Ravens – Week 7 2021
CIN
BAL
CIN
AWAY
41@17
CIN BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 41, Baltimore Ravens 17.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 66%Our line: BAL -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -5.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.069Net EPA / play-0.065
+0.057 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (19)
-0.012 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (27)
44.2% (17)Offense success %46.4% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but CIN won. Projected margin was 5.5, the model overestimated by 29.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 30.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW13 2025 | CIN 32, BAL 14 | BAL | L |
| CIN@BALW10 2024 | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW5 2024 | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 66% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BAL by 5.5. The market has BAL at -6.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 41, BAL 17. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -6.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 7, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.4, 2.9 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 24, CIN 0 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.069 against BAL -0.065.
