2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ BAL – Week 7 2021
CIN
BAL
CIN
AWAY
41@17
CIN +24
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER A
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 66%Projected margin: 6.5
BAL
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
6.5
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but CIN won. Projected margin was 6.5 -- the model overestimated by 30.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 30.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -272 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
314.2SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
304.6SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
287.9SEASON PPR
BAL
Mark Andrews
TE
301.1SEASON PPR
Lamar Jackson
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW13 2025 | CIN 32, BAL 14 | BAL | L |
| CIN@BALW10 2024 | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW5 2024 | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES