2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ CIN – Week 5 2024
BAL
CIN
BAL
AWAY
41@38
BAL +3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 63%Projected margin: -2.8
BAL
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-2.8
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 2.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -148 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
209.5SEASON PPR
CIN
J.Chase
WR
403.0SEASON PPR
J.Burrow
QB
372.8SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW13 2025 | CIN 32, BAL 14 | BAL | L |
| CIN@BALW10 2024 | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW2 2023 | BAL 27, CIN 24 | CIN | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES