Ravens vs Bengals – Week 5 2024
BAL
CIN
BAL
AWAY
41@38
BAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 41, Cincinnati Bengals 38.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Ravens, 1 Bengals.
Model confidence: BAL 63%Our line: BAL -4.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -4.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.269Net EPA / play+0.053
+0.218 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.090 (7)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (22)
50.0% (2)Offense success %47.2% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 4.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW13 2025 | CIN 32, BAL 14 | BAL | L |
| CIN@BALW10 2024 | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW2 2023 | BAL 27, CIN 24 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs CIN
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.4. The market has BAL at -2.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 41, CIN 38. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -2.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.5, 4.0 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 24, CIN 0 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.269 against CIN +0.053.
