2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ LA – Week 5 2024
GB
LA
GB
AWAY
24@19
GB +5
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
LA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: GB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: GB 60%Projected margin: -0.6
GB
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-0.6
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 5. Off by 4.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +130 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
293.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
233.9SEASON PPR
J.Reed
WR
197.0SEASON PPR
LA
K.Williams
RB
272.1SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
214.6SEASON PPR
P.Nacua
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@GBW9 2023 | LA 3, GB 20 | GB | W |
| LA@GBW15 2022 | LA 12, GB 24 | GB | W |
| LA@GBW12 2021 | LA 28, GB 36 | GB | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES