Rams vs Packers – Week 9 2023
LA
GB
LA
AWAY
3@20
GB BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 3, Green Bay Packers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Rams.
Model confidence: GB 64%Our line: GB -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -4.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.048Net EPA / play+0.056
+0.039 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.064 (6)
-0.009 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.008 (24)
44.7% (8)Offense success %44.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 17. Off by 12.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@LAW5 2024 | GB 24, LA 19 | GB | W |
| LA@GBW15 2022 | LA 12, GB 24 | GB | W |
| LA@GBW12 2021 | LA 28, GB 36 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 4.9. The market has GB at -3.5.
Green Bay Packers won, LA 3, GB 20. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 9, the Los Angeles Rams were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 7.7 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 24, LA 19 in Week 5 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Green Bay Packers: LA +0.048 against GB +0.056.
