Titans vs Steelers – Week 9 2023
TEN
PIT
TEN
AWAY
16@20
PIT BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 16, Pittsburgh Steelers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Titans, 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 72%Our line: PIT -7.8
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -7.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.055Net EPA / play-0.013
-0.047 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.073 (23)
+0.007 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
39.7% (26)Offense success %42.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 7.8. Actual: 4. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
40°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Will Levis1808 yd · 8 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@PITW15 2021 | TEN 13, PIT 19 | TEN | L |
| PIT@TENW7 2020 | PIT 27, TEN 24 | TEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project PIT by 7.8. The market has PIT at -3.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, TEN 16, PIT 20. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 9, the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.8, 6.8 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, TEN 13, PIT 19 in Week 15 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: TEN -0.055 against PIT -0.013.
