TEN @ PIT – Week 9 2023
TEN
PIT
TEN
AWAY
16@20
PIT BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 72%Our line: PIT -7.8
PIT
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.8
OUR LINE
-255
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.055Net EPA / play-0.013
-0.047Offense EPA / play-0.073
+0.007Defense EPA / play-0.060
39.7%Offense success %42.0%
43.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 7.8. Actual: 4. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +145 | -175 |
| Our fair price | +255 | -255 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
61%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
40°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
246.7 SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
223.6 SEASON PPR
Tyjae Spears
RB
153.8 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Will Levis1808 yd · 8 TD · 4 INT
RUSHING
Derrick Henry1167 yd · 12 TD
Tyjae Spears453 yd · 2 TD
Ryan Tannehill74 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins75 rec · 1057 yd · 7 TD
Chig Okonkwo54 rec · 528 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@PITW15 2021 | TEN 13, PIT 19 | TEN | L |
| PIT@TENW7 2020 | PIT 27, TEN 24 | TEN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project PIT by 7.8. The market has PIT at -3.5.
The model projects 43.8 combined points. The market total is 37.0.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, TEN 13, PIT 19 in Week 15 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: TEN -0.055 against PIT -0.013.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
