Cardinals vs Browns – Week 9 2023
ARI
CLE
ARI
AWAY
0@27
CLE BY 27
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 0, Cleveland Browns 27.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cardinals, 3 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 70%Our line: CLE -6.9
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -13.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -6.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.157Net EPA / play+0.045
-0.071 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.141 (28)
+0.085 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.186 (1)
40.5% (25)Offense success %38.9% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 6.9. Actual: 27. Off by 20.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CLE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray1799 yd · 10 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Conner1040 yd · 7 TD
Emari Demercado284 yd · 2 TD
Joshua Dobbs258 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Trey McBride81 rec · 825 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@CLEW6 2021 | ARI 37, CLE 14 | ARI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 6.9. The market has CLE at -13.0.
Cleveland Browns won, ARI 0, CLE 27. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -13.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 13.0 points.
In Week 9, the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.9, 5.9 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 37, CLE 14 in Week 6 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: ARI -0.157 against CLE +0.045.
