Seahawks vs Ravens – Week 9 2023
SEA
BAL
SEA
AWAY
3@37
BAL BY 34
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 3, Baltimore Ravens 37.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 62%Our line: BAL -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -4.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.035Net EPA / play+0.215
+0.016 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.066 (5)
+0.051 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.149 (2)
43.9% (11)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 4.0. Actual: 34. Off by 30.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 28.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.0. The market has BAL at -6.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, SEA 3, BAL 37. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -6.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 9, the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 1.8 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: SEA -0.035 against BAL +0.215.
