SEA @ BAL – Week 9 2023
SEA
BAL
SEA
AWAY
3@37
BAL BY 34
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 62%Our line: BAL -4.0
BAL
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.0
OUR LINE
-160
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.035Net EPA / play+0.215
+0.016Offense EPA / play+0.066
+0.051Defense EPA / play-0.149
43.9%Offense success %47.4%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 4.0. Actual: 34. Off by 30.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 28.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +220 | -270 |
| Our fair price | +160 | -160 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.42
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SEA
Geno Smith
QB
227.3 SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
202.4 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Geno Smith3624 yd · 20 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Kenneth Walker III905 yd · 8 TD
Zach Charbonnet462 yd · 1 TD
Geno Smith155 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf66 rec · 1114 yd · 8 TD
Tyler Lockett79 rec · 894 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.0. The market has BAL at -6.0.
The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: SEA -0.035 against BAL +0.215.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
