NO @ KC – Week 5 2024
NO
KC
NO
AWAY
13@26
KC BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
Model confidence: KC 68%Our line: KC -6.2
KC
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.2
OUR LINE
-211
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.101Net EPA / play+0.059
-0.057Offense EPA / play+0.070
+0.044Defense EPA / play+0.011
40.6%Offense success %47.6%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 6.2. Actual: 13. Off by 6.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +190 | -230 |
| Our fair price | +211 | -211 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD KC -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.45
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
67%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for KC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
1 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NO
A.Kamara
RB
265.3 SEASON PPR
D.Carr
QB
150.9 SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
122.8 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
D.Carr2145 yd · 15 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
A.Kamara950 yd · 6 TD
J.Williams164 yd · 1 TD
K.Miller148 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
J.Johnson50 rec · 548 yd · 3 TD
A.Kamara68 rec · 543 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs KC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 6.2. The market has KC at -5.5.
The model projects 44.7 combined points. The market total is 43.0.
Week 5 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 32, NO 29 in Week 15 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Kansas City Chiefs: NO -0.101 against KC +0.059.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
