2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ KC – Week 5 2024
NO
KC
NO
AWAY
13@26
KC +13
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 68%Projected margin: 5.1
KC
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
5.1
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 5.1. Actual: 13. Off by 7.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -230 | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
1 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NO
A.Kamara
RB
265.3SEASON PPR
D.Carr
QB
150.9SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
122.8SEASON PPR
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
283.0SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
195.4SEASON PPR
X.Worthy
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES